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Royal Bank of Canada’s regulatory filings for the second quarter of 2021 contain most of what you’d expect, including several best-case/worst-case scenarios that help the banking giant illustrate how much risk the company is exposed to.
It can make for pretty bland reading, but there’s usually a hint of spice when it comes to projecting the worst possible outcome for real estate. And RBC hasn’t disappointed in that area — by saying home prices in Canada could fall by a massive 30%, under certain conditions.
But what are the chances of that happening? Put another way, it’s a question on the minds of most housing market watchers: Can real estate prices in Canada fall as fast as they’ve been rising?
Banks like RBC base their national housing price projections partly on macroeconomic indicators like employment, consumer spending and economic growth. So for RBC’s worst case to play out, Canada would have to return to the economic turbulence seen in the first few months of the pandemic, with a colossal rise in unemployment, a prolonged recession and plummeting growth.
In the housing market nuclear winter that RBC laid out, a home in Canada priced at $713,500 in March 2021 would be valued at $502,304 by June of next year.
A sudden drop to that extent — 29.6% — would be catastrophic for any recent homebuyers who were able to cobble together only a minimum down payment of 5%. Even new owners who put 20% down would find themselves short on equity, and if they felt pressure to sell after a price collapse, they’d have to do it at a loss.
But RBC’s worst-that-could-happen situation involves the wheels coming off the economy in April 2021. We’re already into June, and things are looking up. At least one COVID-19 vaccination has been shot into the arms of more than 23 million Canadians, and lockdown procedures are finally being lifted — though very slowly — in Ontario, the country’s largest economy. Even RBC analysts are upbeat.
RBC Global Asset Management chief economist Eric Lascelles recently predicted that Canada will “enjoy a profound economic recovery.” Lascelles had little negative to say about the housing market.
Looking at the market’s potential for 2021, including the continued impact of low mortgage rates , Lascelles said Canada can look forward to “a housing market that’s likely to be a little bit less hot, but probably not one that’s going to be correcting or anything quite like that.”
To be fair, RBC isn’t the only institution that painted a gloomy and unlikely worst-case scenario for housing. One from Bank of Montreal saw real estate prices falling by 28.7% between March 2021 and December 2022. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s nightmare situation involved home prices dropping 50%, and unemployment reaching a peak of 25%.
RBC’s filing documents also include base-case and best-case scenarios. In the former, the average home price could hit $871,417 by April 2026. In the latter, it could reach more than $1.2 million.
It hurts to say this, first-time homebuyers, but those outcomes are far more likely than RBC’s doomsday outlook. The base case would require annual average price growth of about 4.4% over the next five years. That’s pretty much a given. The best-case scenario relies on average growth of approximately 14.4% per year.
That’s hardly out of the question. The national average selling price in April was 41.9% higher than a year earlier, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Even with home values heading into uncharted territory at a time of global economic misery, there are several reasons the housing market is unlikely to falter:
Immigration. The Canadian government will be welcoming 400,000 newcomers to the country in 2021, 2022 and 2023. That’s 1.2 million people who will be putting pressure on the housing market, either as buyers or renters. Sellers will have no shortage of new families to sell to, and investors who saw their rental income crushed by the pandemic will once again be able ro raise rents.
Low mortgage rates. As the economy continues recovering, mortgage rates will inevitably start rising. But with many lenders still offering variable rates below 2%, Canadians will find entering the housing market inviting — from a mortgage perspective, at least — for quite some time.
Unquenched demand. Even with the new stress test rules in place, there are still more buyers than there are properties for sale. Each time a home sells after receiving bids from 15 optimistic house hunters, that means 14 bidders will still be in need of a house once the dust settles.
Rigorous underwriting. Lenders put Canadian homebuyers’ finances under an electron microscope before being approved for their mortgages. Their credit scores are evaluated, their incomes are verified and their debt-to-income ratios are carefully measured. In Canada, legitimate lenders do not give mortgages to people who can’t afford them.
Put those factors together and it becomes very difficult to imagine a situation where homeowners will ever be forced to sell their homes at a significant loss, en masse and simultaneously — the hallmarks of a housing crash.
If some unforeseen economic calamity were to take place, one that slaughters the incomes of both homeowners and renters, you might see sellers desperately racing to get out of their mortgages. Until then, though, the real worst-case scenario Canadian homebuyers have to worry about is actually RBC’s best — one where most properties in the country are worth over $1 million.
This article was created by Wise Publishing, Inc., which provides clear, trustworthy information people can use to take control of their finances. Millions of readers throughout North America have come to count on the Toronto-based company to help them save money, find the best bank accounts, get the best mortgage rates and navigate many other financial matters.
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Updated November 1, 2026, using every house, condo and townhome listed for sale in Greater Victoria that day.
How long are homes sitting on the market in Greater Victoria? We checked the listing date of every one of the 2,348 houses, condos and townhomes for sale across the region's 13 municipalities on November 1, 2026. The typical resale home had been listed for 46 days, and about one in five for more than three months, but the picture changes sharply by area, price and type of home.
Updated November 1, 2026, using every house, condo and townhome listed for sale in Greater Victoria that day and the 2026 tax rates set by each municipality.
How much property tax will a home in Greater Victoria cost you? We looked at the annual tax shown on 2,001 house, condo and townhome listings across the region's 13 municipalities and compared it with each asking price. A typical house listing pays about $6,146 a year, but the bill per dollar of value is about 70% higher in Esquimalt than in North Saanich.
Updated November 1, 2026, with the federal rules and insurer policies in force on that date.
Almost every Canadian buyer with less than 20% down ends up with a mortgage insured by CMHC, Sagen (the former Genworth Canada) or Canada Guaranty. Banks also insure billions of dollars of mortgages that never needed it. This guide explains how mortgage default insurance really works in 2026: what makes a mortgage insurable, the properties that cannot be insured and why, why lenders insure loans with 20% or more down, how insurers underwrite, and what happens in a default in British Columbia.
Published October 2026, with the provincial Bill 25 changes, the 2024 BC Building Code and tenancy rules in force today.
Since June 2024, most Greater Victoria lots that used to allow one house now allow three to six homes, and almost every house can have a suite or a garden suite. That has made suites easier to build and more valuable, but it has not made every existing suite legal. Before you buy a home with a suite, or add one, you need to know what the zoning allows, whether the suite was ever permitted, what the Building Code demands, and how lenders, insurers, tenancy law and short-term rental rules treat it.
Published October 2026. Market figures are from the Victoria Real Estate Board's September 2026 release; appraisal standards are current to CUSPAP 2026.
Every comparable sale tells you what one buyer paid for one home on one day. Turning that into a value for a different home, on a different day, takes adjustments, and an adjustment is only as good as the market evidence behind it. This guide explains how appraisers support each adjustment, works through a complete adjustment grid, and gives you a checklist for testing any CMA or appraisal you are handed in Greater Victoria.
Published October 2026. LTSA fees and BC statutes checked October 30, 2026.
A title search is one of the most important documents in a BC property purchase, and many buyers never read past the owner's name. It shows who owns the land, exactly what the land is, and every registered interest someone else holds in it: mortgages, liens, rights of way, easements and covenants. Some of those charges disappear when you complete; others bind you, and every owner after you, for as long as they stay on title. This guide explains how to order a search, how to read each section, which charges are routine and which are red flags, and how to protect yourself in an offer.
Published October 2026. Rules, bylaws and rebates checked October 30, 2026.
Before natural gas reached Greater Victoria builders in 1992, oil was a common way to heat a house here, and the fuel usually sat in a steel tank of about 1,000 litres, often buried in the yard. Many of those tanks were drained and forgotten when owners switched to electricity or gas. Decades later a forgotten tank can rust through, push oil into the soil, the drains and the neighbour's lot, and leave the current owner, and sometimes past owners, with a cleanup bill in the tens of thousands of dollars or more. Here is how to find out whether a property has a tank, what each municipality requires, how removal works, and how to handle a tank when you buy or sell.
Updated October 30, 2026, with the 2024 contract revision, the 2025 disclosure form changes and BCFSA's 2026 template clauses.
In British Columbia an offer becomes a binding contract the moment the seller signs it, so most of the work happens before you write it. This guide walks through preparing, writing and firming up an offer on a Greater Victoria home on the standard BC Contract of Purchase and Sale: deposits, subjects, dates, the three-day rescission period, multiple offers and what happens if a deal falls apart.
Updated October 30, 2026, after the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate increase.
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Updated October 30, 2026 with the current BCFSA, BC Housing, CRA and BC tax rules.
A presale lets you lock in a brand-new condo or townhome in Greater Victoria at today's price, often years before you get the keys. In return you take on risks a resale buyer never faces: delays, design changes, a lender's appraisal at completion, and a contract written by the developer. BC law gives you real protections, including a 7-day right to cancel, trust-held deposits and the 2-5-10 home warranty. This guide explains how each one works as of October 2026, what the taxes and rebates are worth, and the questions to ask before you sign.